It was two months in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while his coach admonished him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his displays were a symptom or the source for Villa's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, however, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. After the in-form star drilled in his second strike to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. The team continued to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their initial half-dozen games, now sit just three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
This is a particularly tough question to answer. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, even as the wins have piled up.
As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team which has strung together 10 in a row, they seem weirdly vulnerable – but currently the margins are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy looks like to exchange chances with the opposition and wait for their star man to save the day with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again versus Manchester United.
The initial strike came from a superb shot, curled right inside the upright from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival they will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Could it be a different scenario whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger might become the force he resembled during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Maybe within that lies the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.
Savoring the Moment
However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought the team would be third at Christmas. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.
This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. As the match-winner faced the North End after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
